Swordfish Frontier Risk Monitor
Predictive Insights for Central Asia and the South Caucasus
The Swordfish Frontier Risk Monitor (SFRM) is a monthly structured early-warning model designed to identify operational risk signals at the subnational level in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. The SFRM provides invaluable insights in 35 regions of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. These Middle Corridor locations are where frontier-market operators and investors are focused for mining and critical minerals, oil and gas, transport and transit.
The SFRM uses a 34-question scoring framework across 8 variables: Governance (GOV), Economic Conditions (ECON), Budget & Expenditure (BUDG), Legal & Regulatory Environment (LEGAL), Narrative & Media (NARR), Enforcement & Compliance (ENFO), Corridor Throughput (CORR), and External Pressure & Sanctions (EXT). Data is collected from dozens of open sources across eight languages.
Follow the SFRM Link to explore the dashboard, download the PDF of the most recent Central Asia & South Caucasus Snapshot Report, and graph trends over time.